Zhu Bin, Chief Economist and Managing Director at Nanhua Futures, and Director of the Nanhua Research Institute, delivered his report of Challenges and Breakthroughs --China's Economic Outlook for 2024.

Part One: Macroeconomics. Mr. Zhu analyzed the actual data and forecasts of key indicators in China such as GDP, production, investment, and consumption, and discussed the reasons for forecasting errors. He paid particular attention to the relationship between the unemployment rate and consumer confidence, as well as the divergence between PMI data and actual employment situations.

Part Two: Real Estate Market. Mr. Zhu pointed out that the Chinese real estate market is facing the dilemma of declining sales and housing prices, and analyzed the impact of factors such as demographic changes and inventory backlog on the market. He emphasized the influence of real estate companies' credit risks on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.

Part Three: Deflation Risks. Mr. Zhu believes that the Chinese economy has entered a period of deflation and analyzed the causes of deflation such as income effects and the solidification of expectations. He highlighted the role of monetary policy in addressing deflation and pointed out the importance of indicators like M1 growth rate.

Part Four: Economic Predicament and Solutions. Mr. Zhu discussed the challenges posed to the Chinese economy by external factors such as technological blockades and industrial upgrading. He proposed three strategies: "central bank fiscalization, fiscal focus on people's livelihoods, and data marketization" to help China overcome its balance sheet challenges.

Part Five: International Trade. Mr. Zhu analyzed the impact of geopolitical factors on China's export landscape and looked ahead to the uncertainties in trade policy arising from the 2024 U.S. elections. He believes that China should actively integrate into the new international trade framework and seize opportunities in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia.