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China PET bottle chip: supply demand pattern change under massive profits
!!Charles Guo, Senior Analyst of CCFGroup

2018-10-26 11:46:03

Mr. Guo's report was divided into five parts:

Firstly, he reviewed the market operation in Jan-Sep, 2018 in China. By Sep 2018, designed capacity of PET bottle chip in China is 9.46 million tons and increased to 9.56 million tons. Capacity utilization of PET bottle chip averaged at around 84% in Jan-Sep, 2018, slanting high in recent years. Profitability of PET bottle chip industry was basically below 2% in the past years, belonging to goods with minor profit.

Secondly, he analyzed the PET bottle chip industrial pattern change. By end 2018, the global capacity of PET is expected to exceed 32 million.

Thirdly, he introduced the industrial cycle and demand change. PET bottle chip capacity expansions concentrated in 2012-2014. With the improvement of supply-demand condition in 2015-2016, domestic PET bottle chip projects were carried out gradually. The demand for bottle packaging accounts for about 90%, of which soft drink packaging accounts for the largest proportion. Transparent cup covers and cup-filled drinks can also use PET bottle chip, such as milk tea, cold drinks and coffee.

Fourthly, Mr. Guo analyzed the anti-dumping and trade barrier. Trade barriers such as anti-dumping existed from EU, Turkey, Brazil, Japan and Cananda and so on, and other concerns remained. Will India initiate an anti-dumping investigation against China?

Lastly, Mr. Guo presented his view toward future market trend. PET bottle chip capacity expansion plan in 2018-2023 and forecast of TOP10 PET bottle chip producers was presented in this part. Domestic demand growth is expected to remain around 6% and export is predicted to decline. Asian will continue to be the most intensive operation startup region and exports will increase year-on-year. In North America, exports will improve gradually as new capacity in U.S. will be released in the next few years , and companies in North America with compete with that in Asian. In Europenew capacity is weak and demand is expected to increase though the local market demand is almost saturated in the next few years
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