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Meditation on current macro-economic situation
!!Zhu Bin, Vice General Manager of Nanhua Futures

2018-10-26 09:47:56

The report mainly covers the U.S. economy cycle, emerging market economy and China's economy to have a thought on current macro economy.

Firstly, the US economy is in its best time since last crisis. The GDP and Manufacturing PMI is healthy and unemployed ratio continues to lower, showing that Americans restart to be optimistic. However, looking from US economy cycle, the year of 2019 is forecasted to be the ceiling of the medium cycle.

Secondly, the report shows the emerging market economic situation. Viewed from the history, the cycle of interest rate increase and U.S. dollar appreciation may trigger crisis, while lessons have already learned by emerging market.

Thirdly, he considers that China' economy is stable currently. China¨s manufacturing industry keeps growing, and supply-side reform has gained some achievements. Mr. Zhu says that China' economy mainly sees the investment.

Has consumption downgraded? Mr. Zhu states that the index of social retail sales has defects, which only calculate physical consumption, but not calculate the service consumption, like travel. For currency policy, it returns to be loose and easing credits come. Moreover, he considers that the key of stable expectation rests with stock market and PBOC adopts REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate Index) as control target.
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